A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

Mar 23 2012

Will U.S. Job Growth Begin to Flag?

With U.S. payroll job growth averaging nearly a quarter of a million a month over the last three months, general optimism about the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery has improved considerably.  However, coming out of the Great Recession, shell-shocked employers continued to slash jobs for many more months than usual. Thus, part of the current growth in jobs can be attributed to employers playing “catch-up” after this cyclically anomalous lag.

In this context, ECRI has completed an in-depth analysis revealing which states and sectors are driving the ongoing jobs recovery. Moreover, using newly-created regional leading employment indexes, we determine whether growth in the groups of states spearheading this jobs revival can hold up much longer.

Related News & Events

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 22, 2012

Presentation slides and notes from Frankfurt conference about the risk of contagion, explaining why both developed and developing economies are now in the "Yo-Yo Years." More


Why Our Recession Call Stands

ECRI March 15, 2012

Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor give us no choice. More


U.S. Growth at 21-Month Low

CNBC February 24, 2012

The hard data which officially define recession show that U.S. economic growth has been slowing, not reviving. More