ECRI Assesses U.S. Recession Risks

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

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ECRI Assesses U.S. Recession Risks

With recent stock market declines and weaker-than-expected economic data showing that U.S. economic growth is indeed slowing, ECRIâ€™s forecast from last spring is being vindicated.

Today, many economists, who had been expecting a second-half rebound until recently, now believe U.S. economic growth will be anemic, but not recessionary. Amid such double-dip discussion dominating the current debate, ECRIâ€™s latest assessment of its array of leading indexes provides the clearest picture of whether a hard or soft landing lies ahead.

This information is excerpted from a full report issued August 22, 2011 to Professional members.

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Full Report: August 19, 2011: U.S. Cyclical Outlook