A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Nov 12 2012

U.K. Home Price Outlook

U.K. home prices have been drifting down for some time, and currently stand some 20% below their 2007 peak. In the years since, the U.K. economy has been dogged by periods of negative GDP growth, serious long-term unemployment, and ongoing uncertainty stemming from the Eurozone crisis. In line with the stream of generally weak U.K. economic data, most housing experts expect the downward drift in U.K. home prices to continue.

The latest update to ECRI’s U.K. Leading Home Price Index (UKLHPI) clarifies the cyclical trajectory of U.K. home prices, indicating whether home prices will continue their downward drift, or surprise the consensus by stabilizing soon.

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The Tell-Tale Chart

ECRI December 7, 2012

Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More