A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

Jan 30 2013

Japan and Recession Number Six

In a recent speech to the Diet, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised the rebirth of the Japanese economy using a strategy that would focus on “a bold monetary policy, a flexible fiscal policy and a growth strategy that will encourage greater private-sector investment." That same day, the Japanese Cabinet also forecast that the Japanese economy would grow at 2.5% in 2013. Japanese policymakers seem confident that the economic stimulus will be able to push Japan out of its sixth recession in two decades.

In this context, we have completed a comprehensive review of our leading and coincident indexes of the Japanese economy that offer an unbiased view of their economic prospects.