A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Oct 02 2012

Is the Chinese Cyclical Downturn Over?

With second quarter year-over-year GDP growth falling to a three-year low, the Chinese slowdown, which ECRI has been predicting all year, has proven to be protracted and severe. As a result, hopes that China would be the locomotive of growth for the troubled global economy have been dashed, but, more recently the People’s Bank of China also introduced a new round of monetary stimulus in an effort to help growth reaccelerate.

In this context, ECRI has just updated a detailed analysis on the Chinese economy assessing an array of Chinese leading and coincident indexes of economic growth and inflation. The study reveals various cyclical risks to China’s economic outlook, with critical implications for many major economies around the world, especially those that rely heavily on exports to China.

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The 2012 Recession: Are We There Yet?

ECRI September 13, 2012

Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More