A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

All Reports

Dec 01 2012

Global Industrial Contractions and Budget Projections

Industrial production is contracting in every G7 economy and all of the BRICS, with the exception of China. Particularly within the G7 economies, these concerted downturns have intensified of late.

At the same time, often cited U.S. Congressional Budget Office projections show that real GDP growth will average 4.3% from 2014 through 2017. However, since the start of the century average real GDP growth has been 1.6%.

Are the production data properly reflecting economic situations around the globe – or are optimistic growth projections right? ECRI’s latest international report reconciles these issues, with clear implications for economic activity in the months, and years, ahead.

Related Insights

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.


Related News & Events

The Tell-Tale Chart

ECRI December 7, 2012

Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More


ECRI Recession Update

CNN November 29, 2012

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joins CNN International's Ali Velshi to discuss the cyclical outlook. More