A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jul 28 2014

Timing of Fed Rate Hikes

The current market complacency is founded largely on the growing conviction that, with U.S. wage growth flagging, the Fed will not hike rates sooner than expected. Indeed, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen recently allayed rate hike concerns, noting that real wage gains have been “nonexistent.”

ECRI’s latest study investigates whether Ms. Yellen’s suggestion – that stronger real wage growth is a prerequisite for higher inflation – is underpinned by historical evidence, coming to a conclusion with clear implications for Fed behavior in the months ahead.

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