A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Aug 28 2015

Global Deflationary Fears

Six years ago – the last time global import price deflation was this intense – the worst global recession in decades was just ending. Years of attempts to pull demand forward from the future, which enabled capacity building that has boosted supply, have resulted in massive deflation, enormous amounts of global debt and falling trend growth around the world.

These developments raise the questions of whether recession risks have mounted in the U.S. or other major economies, and what policymakers can do to dispel these deflationary forces. This is especially important in China, where the devaluation of the Chinese yuan earlier this month, along with the recent stock market slide, has led many to believe that the economy is slowing much more sharply than previously thought. ECRI’s latest report puts the recent issues in perspective, providing a more nuanced analysis likely to reveal insights that stand in sharp contrast to the consensus view.

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