A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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May 21 2015

Fed Rate Hike May Be Postponed Due to Inclement Data

While the Fed remains anxious to hike rates, weak growth may cause further delays in liftoff. Indeed, Q1 GDP growth came in barely positive, and it is now expected to be revised negative. Furthermore, Q1 only saw positive growth because inventory buildup contributed three-quarters of a percentage point to growth.

But, with inventories likely to act as a drag on Q2 GDP growth, the Fed is facing negative or zero growth for the first half of the year – the result of the growth rate cycle slowdown we called for in December – making a rate hike increasingly unpalatable.

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Oil Price Volatility, Recessions, U.S. Outlook

Bloomberg May 11, 2015

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined Bloomberg TV to discuss ECRI's recession call, the implications of oil price volatility, the two-speed economy in the U.S., and more. More


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