A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

All Reports

Can the Fed Piece the Economy Back Together?

The Fed recently revised both its methods and “guideposts” for implementing accommodative policy.

While some have argued that the weakness in the job market and the overall economy can be countered with central bank intervention, others think that weak growth in the economy, including employment, is more structural in nature and cannot be changed by quantitative easing alone.

ECRI’s latest report investigates both the structural and cyclical situation in the U.S. economy, showing if all the Fed’s helicopters and all the Fed’s men can put the economy back together again.

Full Report: December 20, 2012: U.S. Cyclical Outlook

Related Insights

The Yo-Yo Years

ECRI March 1, 2012

The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.