A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Feb 08 2013

Bank of England Lending Scheme Aims to Evade Triple-Dip

ECRI has just updated its United Kingdom Long Leading Index (UKLLI). The value of this index lies in its ability to anticipate cyclical turns in the economy before conventional leading indexes.

Amid fears of a triple-dip recession in the U.K., the Bank of England’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), designed to increase credit availability for households and businesses, appears to have taken hold in December. With mortgage approvals beating forecasts, net mortgage lending producing its largest increase since April and housing prices leveling off in January after six months of decline, the housing sector may become less of a drag on the economy.

ECRI’s latest update to the UKLLI provides insight into whether the FLS might help the U.K. avoid yet another recession.