A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jan 22 2014

American Exceptionalism

For the fifth straight year, expectations are running high that this time around the U.S. economy will take off and reach “escape velocity.” The prevailing belief is that, while the Eurozone may be flirting with chronically weak growth and deflation danger, America faces no such threats. And even if most other major developed economies may be “becoming Japan,” that cannot possibly hold for the U.S.

From the incoming Fed Chairman to mainstream analysts and other policymakers, such optimism is one reason why disappointing data, like recent job growth and inflation figures, have been so confounding. So is the U.S. uniquely poised to reach escape velocity?

ECRI’s latest report provides the outlook for U.S. growth, with specific attention to jobs, housing and trade, that reveals the likely cyclical picture in coming months.

Taking the longer view, there is a pressing need for an adult conversation about what is going on with U.S. economic growth, instead of refusing to acknowledge the problem. The reality is that major structural changes are occurring in developed countries around the world – including the U.S. – resulting in more frequent recessions in these economies, as is already obvious in Europe and Japan.

Related News & Events

Secular Stagnation

Fox Business News January 22, 2014

GDP growth (yoy) has been less than 2% for four straight quarters, something we've never seen except during or right after a recession. More


Cyclical & Secular Outlook

BNN Bloomberg January 15, 2014

ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan joined BNN to discuss the cyclical outlook. More


Job Growth Not Trending Higher

ECRI January 14, 2014

Even ignoring December data, the household survey, which sees far smaller revisions, counts a million fewer jobs created over the prior 12 months than the establishment survey. More