A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Virtually Pounding Table on Recovery

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose along with its yearly growth rate, reaffirming hope that yearly growth will turn positive in the summer months, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to a 36-week high of 117.1 for the week ending June 12, from an upwardly revised 116.2 the previous week.

In recent weeks, the group has forecast that the U.S. recession will end sometime during this summer, as its yearly economic growth reading rebounds from late-2008 lows.

The index's annualized growth rate spiked to an 85-week high of minus 0.6 percent from the prior week's revised rate of minus 3.5 percent.

It was ECRI's highest yearly growth reading since the week ended October 26, 2007, when it stood at minus 0.6 percent.

"With WLI growth rocketing up almost 30 percentage points in six months, it's virtually pounding the table about the recession ending this summer," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI...