A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Update: Sep. 26

A measure of the U.S. economy edged down in the latest week, a report showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a private forecasting group, said its weekly leading index fell slightly to 128.8 in the week ended Sept. 19 compared to a downwardly revised reading of 129.3 for the prior week.

The index's growth rate, an annualized rate for the four-week moving average that evens out weekly fluctuations, rose to 12.5 percent from a revised rate of 12.4 percent in the previous week.

"The (index's) performance reassures us that the recovery, however abnormal in terms of job growth, has built up a head of steam," said ECRI.

The weekly leading index is composed of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.