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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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WLI Update


The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a private forecasting group, said its leading index inched up to 127.6 in the week to Aug. 15 from a revised 127.4 the preceding week.

The index's growth rate, an annualized rate for the four-week moving average that evens out weekly fluctuations, slowed to 12.7 percent from 13.2 percent the previous week.

"There are clear signs of (economic) growth shifting into higher gear," Banerji told Reuters. "But rising interest rates will lead to moderation down the road."

The weekly leading index is composed of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.