A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Ticks Up

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose modestly in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate also improved, a research group said on Friday.  

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  edged up to 123.1 in the week ended Jan 27 from a revised 122.7 the previous week. That was originally reported as 122.8.  

The index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 5.2 percent from minus 6.6 percent a week earlier.  

ECRI said the growth rate rose to a 22-week high. 


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Forecasting Fog

New York Times December 18, 2011

The American economy certainly isn't at peak strength. With unemployment at a painfully high 8.6 percent, it can't be. More