A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Slips

A weekly gauge of the U.S. economy edged lower in the latest week although its overall performance for the last month recovered from lows hit in Oct. 2002 and a prewar decline, a report showed on Thursday.

"The growth rate tells us that the index as a whole has made up for the ground it lost due to war jitters," Anirvan Banerji, ECRI research director, told Reuters. "It looks as though we are back on track for a continuation of the sub-par recovery we had earlier in 2002."

The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.