WLI Slips

A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.
To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.
The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

News

WLI Slips

The U.S. economy could yet avoid a new recession, but the risks of economic contraction persist, particularly if the war in Iraq dragged on for a long time and eroded business confidence further, a report showed on Friday.

"The threat of recession is easing on the margins but has not gone away completely," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.

The index's growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, edged up to -1.0 percent from -1.3 percent.