A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Slips

The U.S. economy could yet avoid a new recession, but the risks of economic contraction persist, particularly if the war in Iraq dragged on for a long time and eroded business confidence further, a report showed on Friday.

"The threat of recession is easing on the margins but has not gone away completely," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.

The index's growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, edged up to -1.0 percent from -1.3 percent.