A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Rises to 17-month High

A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth continued to rise, reaching levels hit in the summer of 2008, while its yearly growth rate climbed toward recent record levels, a research group said on Friday, saying this reaffirmed its forecasts of smooth recovery into 2010.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.7 in the week ended Dec. 11 from an upwardly revised 130.2 the previous week. ECRI originally reported the previous week's number as 130.1.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to a four-week high of 24.7 percent from 24.0 percent the prior week, which was revised higher from 23.8 percent.

Yearly growth has risen for three straight weeks, rebounding toward its record high of 28.1 percent reached in October.

"With the WLI rising to a 17-month high as its growth rate reaccelerates, a resilient economic recovery is poised to persist well into the New Year," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.