A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Rises Again

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 29-week high in the latest week, while the index's annualized growth rate rose to a 27-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 126.4 in the week ended Dec. 3 from 125.3 the previous week.

That was the highest level since May 14, when it stood at 127.0.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 1.5 percent from minus 2.4 percent a week earlier. That was the highest since May 28, when it was 0.1 percent.

"With both the WLI and its growth rate rising to their best readings since May, a 'double dip' back into recession remains off the table, notwithstanding self-serving recession warnings that feed fear itself," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.