A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Rises

A gauge of the U.S. economy rose to an 11-month high last week, a report showed on Friday.

In the week to May 30, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said its weekly leading index rose to 123.0 from 121.5 in the prior week.

"The fog of war has completely cleared and we are firmly on track for a subpar recovery," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

"The implication there is that the pace of growth will fall short of that needed for stronger job growth."

The index's growth rate, a four-week moving average that evens out weekly fluctuations, rose to 4.4 percent -- the highest in almost a year -- from 4.0 percent.

The weekly leading index is composed of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.