A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Rises

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly last week, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 127.8 [two-week high] in the week ended June 10, from 127.6 the previous week, originally reported at 127.7.

The slight rise may be seen as a good sign, after data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank yesterday revealed factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic contracted to a near two year low.

New York's Empire State Survey showed a drop in factory activity the day before.

But, offering a glimmer of hope in the housing market, new building permits unexpectedly rebounded to the highest level since December, and groundbreaking for new homes rose 3.5 percent. First-time applications for state unemployment insurance also fell 16,000 to 414,000.

ECRI's annualized growth rate fell to 3.7 percent [19-week low] from 4.1 percent a week earlier.