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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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WLI Rises


A gauge of the U.S. economy recovered from its prewar decline in the latest week, a report showed on Friday.

"While we do not see a complete recovery to where the index was in the first half of 2002, the index has recovered (from) the weakness it had (shown) leading up to the Iraqi war," Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director, told Reuters.

The index's growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, also rose, to -0.1 percent from -1.0 percent.

The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.