A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Remains Near Cyclical Low

A measure of U.S. future economic growth rose in the latest week along with its annualized growth rate, though the economy remains far from recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 107.3 for the first time in six weeks for the period ending Feb. 13. The index read 106.3 in the previous week.

The annualized growth rate inched up to negative 24.0 percent from negative 24.5 percent.

"While the WLI rose for the first time in six weeks, it still remains near its cyclical low," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

"An economic recovery is not at hand," Hubman added...