A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Level Edges Higher

A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged higher in the latest week, and though its yearly growth rate slipped, recent patterns in the index still point to a steady recovery and growth in the job market as well, a research group said on Thursday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to a 77-week high of 131.2 for the week ended Dec. 25, from a downwardly revised 130.3 the prior week, which was originally reported as 130.4.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked down to a three-week low of 24.2 percent from 24.4 percent the previous week.

It was the lowest yearly growth measure for the index since it reached record highs in early October. The figures have remained in a range between 24.2 percent and 27.6 percent since the all-time high.

Recent steady growth in the leading index "points to continuing improvement in economic activity and the jobs market in coming months," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.