A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Level Edges Higher

A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week, and though its yearly growth rate slipped further to an 11-week low the rise in the index points to increased economic activity in the near term, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 129.5 in the week ended Nov. 27, from an upwardly revised 128.9 the prior week, originally reported as 128.8.

The index's yearly growth rate dipped to an 11-week low of 23.4 percent from 24.2 percent, which was revised higher from an original 24.1 percent.

Though the annualized growth gauge has fallen from all-time highs touched in early October, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said the inverse move between the two components is "consistent with increasing economic activity in the months ahead."...

The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average, and occasionally moves inversely to the weekly index level.