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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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WLI Level Dips


A measure of future U.S. economic growth dipped in the latest week while its annualized growth rate inched up but both still indicate the downward spiral of the economy has not stopped, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 107.3 for the week ending Jan. 23, from 107.5 in the previous week, initially reported as 107.4.

The index's annualized growth rate inched up to negative 24.0 percent from negative 24.3 percent, revised up from minus 24.4 percent.

"While the WLI is no longer plunging, it has declined for three weeks following a four-week advance from its cycle low," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI. "Thus, an economic recovery is not yet in sight." ...