A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Level at 28-Week High

A measure of U.S. future economic growth climbed in the latest week, sending its yearly growth rate to levels last seen in September, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index spiked to a 28-week high of 111.0 for the week ending May 8 from 109.7 in the previous week, which was revised higher from 109.3.

ECRI said it sees the U.S. recession ending sometime this summer as the group's leading index touches its highest levels this year.

The index's annualized growth rate continued to rise to a 32-week high of negative 13.6 percent from last week's rate of 15.6 percent, which was revised up from negative 16.1 percent.

"With the level of the WLI climbing to a 28-week high over the last nine weeks, the light at the end of the recession tunnel is getting brighter," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI...