A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth Rises

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a six-week high in the latest week, but held at a level that suggests the recovery will remain sluggish, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 121.8 in the week ended July 30 from 121.0 the previous week, originally reported at 121.1. That was the highest level since June 18, when it stood at 122.3.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 10.3 percent from minus 10.7 percent a week earlier. That was the highest since July 9, when it stood at minus 9.8 percent. "After being essentially flat since late June following a two-month plunge, the WLI has now risen to a six-week high, but a more sustained downturn in the WLI would certainly heighten recession risks." said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.