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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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WLI Growth Rises


A weekly index of future U.S. economic growth ticked up to levels reached early last year in the latest week, and a rebound in its yearly growth rate reaffirms forecasts of a smooth recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.1 in the week ended Dec. 4, from 129.5 the previous week.

The index's yearly growth rate rose to 23.8 percent from 23.4 percent the previous week, after spending seven straight weeks falling from record highs it hit in early October.

"The economic outlook remains positive" despite the recent contraction in the group's measure of annualized economic growth, said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.

"We really need to see a pronounced, pervasive and persistent move in the opposite direction to say things are changing direction from our earlier outlook."

...The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average, and occasionally moves inversely to the weekly index level.
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