A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth Remains Deep in Negative Territory

A measure of future economic growth in the United States and its annualized growth rate rose in the latest week but are still near all-time lows, a sign that the way out of recession is still out of sight, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose in the week ending Jan 2 to 109.4 from 108 in the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to negative 26.8 from negative 28.7 percent.

"While WLI growth has inched up over the past four weeks, it remains deep in negative territory, indicating that an economic recovery is not yet in sight," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI...