A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth Rate Edges Down

A weekly measure of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week while its yearly growth rate edged lower, indicating that the economic recovery, while easing, is still poised to strengthen in the near term, a research group said on Friday. (Note from ECRI: the characterization that the economic recovery is "easing" is from the Reuters reporter, and not from ECRI.)

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index ticked up to 128.4 in the week to Oct. 23 from 127.9 the previous week.

The index's yearly growth rate fell to 26.9 percent from 27.2 percent last week. ECRI has recently reported annualized economic growth at all-time highs.

"Despite coming off its early-October record high, WLI growth remains robust, suggesting that the U.S. economic recovery will continue to gather strength in the coming months," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

The weekly index was up due to higher commodity prices, Achuthan said. The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average, and occasionally moves inversely to the weekly index level.