A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth Nose-Diving to Historical New Low

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to its lowest in 13 years and its annualized rate showed U.S. economic growth is sliding at its fastest recorded pace, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said the annualized growth rate of its Weekly Leading Index slid in the week ending Nov. 14 from a revised negative 27.1 percent to minus 28.2 percent, a new low according to ECRI data recorded since January 1949.

"With WLI growth nose-diving to yet another historical low, the outlook for the economy is worsening at the fastest pace on record," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.

The WLI level fell to a 13-year low of 108.0 from a downwardly revised 110.1, to match a number not seen since Aug. 25, 1995...