A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth Falling at Fastest Pace in 60 Yrs

A measure of future economic growth in the United States edged up in the previous week but its annualized growth rate set a fresh record low, indicating the U.S. economy is falling at its fastest pace in at least six decades, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said the annualized growth rate of its Weekly Leading Index slid from minus 24.6 percent to negative 25.9 percent, its historic lowest, according to ECRI data recorded since January 1949.

"With WLI growth continuing to plumb new lows, not only is no economic recovery on the horizon, but the economy is falling off a cliff at its fastest pace in at least six decades," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

But the index inched up 111.3 in the week to Nov. 7, from 110.8 in the previous period, initially reported as 110.9...