A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth Eases to 36-Week Low

A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week along with its yearly growth rate, suggesting an easing in the pace of recovery in the coming months, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 131.2 for the week ended April 9, from 131.8 the prior week, which was originally reported as 131.9.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to 12.6 percent from 13.4 percent, originally reported as 13.6 percent.

"With WLI growth easing to a 36-week low, the pace of U.S. economic growth will begin to throttle back in the next few months," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

However, "a double dip recession remains out of the question," he said.

The weekly index reading is the lowest since March 12, when the index stood at 131.0. The annualized growth rate is the lowest level since July 31, 2009, when it stood at 11.2 percent.