A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth at New 28-year Low

A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to a fresh five-year low and its annualized growth rate dove to a 28-year low, indicating the recession will likely drag on regardless of policy actions, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 122.2 in the week to Sept. 19, its lowest reading since the week to April 25, 2003, when it stood at 120.7.

Last week's figure was 125.0, revised from 125.1.

Its annualized growth rate plunged to negative 12.3 percent from minus 11.5 percent in the previous week, matching a low reached in June 6, 1980 according to ECRI data...

"With WLI growth falling to a fresh 28-year low, it is clear that the recession will not end any time soon, regardless of actions taken by Washington," he said.