A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth at 40-Week Low

A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a four-week low in the latest week while its annualized growth rate hit a 40-week low, indicating a slowdown in the recovery in the coming months, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 132.0 in the week ended May 7, from 134.7 the previous week.

The latest figure is the lowest level since April 9, when it stood at 131.3.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to 12.2 percent, from 12.7 percent, its lowest level since July 31, 2009, when it stood at 11.2 percent.

"With WLI growth falling to a 40-week low, the pace of improvement in the overall economy is set to slacken in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.