A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth at 27-Week High

A weekly measure of U.S. future economic growth remained unchanged, while its annualized growth rate rose to levels last seen in early October 2008, suggesting economic recovery for the near future, a research group said Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index was flat at 107.2 for the week ending April 17.

The index's annualized growth rate -- continuing its six-month upswing -- rose to negative 18.6 percent from the prior week's rate of negative 19.7 percent.

It was the highest yearly growth reading since Oct. 10, 2008, when the rate was minus 17.0 percent, according to ECRI data.

"With WLI growth rising to a 27-week high, U.S. economic growth, which is now at a record low, will soon begin to improve," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI...