A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Growth at 25-Week High

A weekly measure of U.S. future economic growth slipped, while its annualized growth rate climbed to levels last seen in October 2008, indicating that economic recovery is probable in the coming months, a research group said Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 107.2 for the week ending April 10 from 107.4, which was revised lower from 107.9.

But the index's annualized growth rate -- which has seen nearly a six-month upswing -- rose to negative 19.7 percent from the prior week's rate of negative 20.9 percent, revised lower from negative 20.6 percent.

It was the highest yearly growth reading since the week of Oct. 17, 2008, when the rate plunged to a 33-year low of minus 17.1 percent, according to ECRI data.

"With the upturn in Weekly Leading Index growth continuing for over five months now, growth in U.S. economic activity will begin to improve in short order," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI...