A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Falls

A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 2-week low in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate rose to a 32-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 128.9 in the week ended Dec. 31 from 129.0 the previous week.

That was the lowest since Dec. 17, when it was 128.0.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 3.3 percent from 2.3 percent a week earlier. That was the highest since May 21, when it stood at 4.9 percent.

"Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average," ECRI said in a statement.