A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Edges Up

A weekly leading indicator of U.S. economic activity nudged higher last week, a report on Friday showed.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Weekly Leading Index (WLI) inched higher to 121.6 in the week ended April 5 from 121.3 in the prior week.

The index's growth rate -- which compares the four-week moving average with its behavior over the preceding year -- edged lower for the second straight week, to 3.9 percent from 4.0.

Even with this marginal two-week decline in the growth rate, the index is very much maintaining the cyclical uptrend," ECRI Research Director Anirvan Banerji said. "That's telling us that this remains a sustainable recovery."

The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.