A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, and the growth rate weakened on an annualized basis, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 123.9 in the week ended April 13 from 125.9 the previous week.
The index's annualized growth rate dropped to 1.2 percent from a revised 1.7 percent a week earlier. It was originally reported at 1.4 percent.
The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.
ECRI principals will be in Toronto to meet with professional members on April 30, 2012.
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