A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI Drops

A measure of future U.S. economic growth sank to a 41-week low in the latest week and its growth gauge turned negative for the first time in 35 weeks, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dropped to 123.9 in the week ended August 12, from 127.6 the previous week, originally reported at 127.9 percent. That is its lowest reading since October 29, 2010.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to -0.1 percent, its lowest since December 10, 2010, from 1.5 percent a week earlier, which was revised from 1.7 percent.

The index comes a day after data revealed factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region slumped to a recession low in August, prompting U.S. bond yields to drop and deepening concerns over a drawn-out U.S. economic slowdown.