A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI at Nine-Week High

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a nine-week high in the latest week, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 122.4 in the week ended August 6 from 121.7 the previous week.

That was the highest level since June 4, when it stood at 122.7

"The WLI plummeted for two months through late June before flattening out and then rising to a nine-week high. But if it turns down once again, that would signal heightened recession danger," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 9.8 percent from minus 10.3 percent a week earlier. That was the highest since July 9, the last time it stood at minus 9.8 percent.