A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



WLI at New 13-Year Low

A measure of U.S. future economic growth fell to a 13-year low while its annualized growth rate remained constant in negative territory, indicating economic recovery is nowhere in sight, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index dipped to 105.6 for the week ending Feb. 20 from 107.2 in the previous week.

It was the lowest the index has been since April 21, 1995, when it read 105.6.

The annualized growth rate was steady at negative 24.1 percent, according to the weekly report.

"The WLI has dropped to a new cycle low, clearly indicating that the recession will intensify in coming months, with no recovery in sight," said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI...