A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Whatever it is, it isn't deflation

"...Furthering the theme of no deflation yet, the graph below (not shown) plots growth in a leading indicator of the U.S. inflation rate devised by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Contrary to appearances, cautions Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director, the angle of rise (in the FIG) does not necessarily presage a blastoff of the CPI. What it does forecast is a rise in the inflation rate, not a fall."