A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Indicators Weak

Want some more bad news to throw on top of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index’s dreary results?

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which correctly predicted both the latest recession and its recovery, a short while ago offered up its weekly reading on leading economic indicators, showing a dip from 13.7 to 13.1.

As the chart below shows, that’s a continuation of a declining trend that began last fall, after a surge in indicators in the first half of last year that had prompted ECRI to declare the recovery.

U.S. equities are broadly down, with the Dow Industrials off 4 points at 10,608 and the S&P 500 off almost 2 points at 1,148.

The Dollar has gained some strength, rising to $1.3745 against the Euro from $1.3758 this morning.