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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Update


[A] leading index of the U.S. economy [edged higher], a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) rose to 131.9 in the week ended July 30 compared with a revised reading of 131.0 in the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, dropped significantly to 0.1 percent from a revised 0.8 percent in the previous period. The growth rate hit its lowest level since the week of April 11 of last year.

"The WLI has telegraphed very clearly that the U.S. economy did not hit a "soft patch" this summer, but rather is experiencing a cyclical decline in growth, and this is borne out by today's employment report," said, Lakshman Achuthan managing director of ECRI.

"Furthermore the WLI is telling us that this slowing will continue through year-end," Achuthan added.