A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Unchanged

A leading index of the U.S. economy remained flat in the latest week, ..., a report showed on Friday...

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index was flat at 134.5 in the week ended July 22 compared with a downwardly revised 134.5 in the prior week.

The index's annualized growth rate reached an 11-week high at 1.7 percent. The growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, was 1.4 percent in the prior week.

"The previous easing in the WLI telegraphed the downshift in U.S. economic growth closer to trend, which we now see appearing in numbers like the gross domestic product report released this morning," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

U.S. GDP growth slowed to 3.4 percent in the second quarter from 3.8 percent between January and March, in line with economists' expectations, according to a Reuters poll.

"With WLI growth now rising to an eleven-week high, it underscores the gradual improvements in U.S. economic growth prospects from here," he said.