A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth ticked up in the latest week as did its annualized growth rate, but both still show the U.S. economy headed for recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.8 in the week of March 21 from 130.8 in the prior week...

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to minus 10.0 percent from minus 10.2 percent, revised from negative 10.4 percent.

"With growth in the WLI having stabilized around recessionary readings, the economy remains locked on the recession track," said Achuthan.